[I think this snap, from an online newspaper in the US, is from Houston. Oddly, a lot of the images turned up by Bing on Waymo are copy protected in one way or another - so no caption in this case. No image in others]
In a postscript to reference 1, I mentioned the arrival of Waymo to-be-driverless cars in a postscript. After that, I turned my attention to the claims for substantial benefits of same which appeared in the BBC report about these cars.
‘… The government has estimated that the autonomous vehicle industry could add £42bn to the UK economy by 2035 and create nearly 40,000 new jobs…’.
With the help of Gemini, I quickly ran down two official looking reports about this, some years old now, both of which had been produced by consultants with an interest in the matter, references 2 and 3. Both including a good dollop of images and graphics. The source of the two numbers quoted above.
The story in these two reports seems to be that this is a huge opportunity for the UK, with driverless cars very much playing to our strengths in software engineering. The notes that follow are the result of turning a few pages; I have not made a serious attempt to read them properly – and one sometimes suspects that that is not the objective of reports of this sort. They are intended to look good, not to be read. And you can’t even be sure these days that the people who wrote them have read them!
But one can see why technology companies like Google, who have already made a big investment in mapping and in AI generally, might see autonomous taxis such as Waymo, as an attractive business opportunity. Technology companies with deep pockets.
While the likes of Volkswagen are pushing hard into the assisted driving business, making a start there, before moving into full autonomy.
But it is far from clear to me that all this is going to have a positive effect on employment in the UK as a whole. It is far from clear to me that the UK is going to grab such a big share of the market – either for the cars themselves or for the IT-heavy supporting technology and infrastructure. Just think of all the engineers that they turn out in India – never mind China.
And I dare say this is part of why the industry is making a pitch for government support. Public money to back private initiative – private initiative which may be misplaced.
The first report
This being reference 2.
‘This document sets out government’s response to the Law Commissions’ recommendations and commits to a new legislative framework for safe self-driving road vehicles, based on these recommendations. This new framework will enable innovation whilst also ensuring safety…’. A legal springboard for a glossy – not to say glowing – report.
Where do these people come from: ‘… reinforcing the UK’s place as a global science superpower…’? Mind, they are Conservatives, from the previous government.
The second page of the introduction offers ‘Nine key principles from the Future of Mobility: Urban Strategy’. All worthy stuff and including a plug for cycling, but I don’t suppose these lawyers will bother themselves with reining in the cycle hire companies and their customers. We also get a plug for Brexit, which means that the lawyers get commission on two lots of regulations, rather than just the one. Ours will best, naturally.
The nine principles are followed in short order by three pillars, incorporated into the emerging theory as columns of text.
The box second from the left, top, prompted the thought that an old lady wanting a taxi to take her home from doing her shopping in town might not be too keen on a taxi without a driver. Perhaps for a suitable supplement she could have one with a talking robot?
What you might think are footnotes are actually endnotes, a lot of which appear to be pointers to more glossy reports. The first two I checked no longer appear to exist, while the third, from the private sector offers an extra ten years: ‘Welcome to the UK Connected and Automated Mobility Roadmap to 2035’. All very whizzy, seemingly designed to be consumed online rather than read. I associate to the rather irritating articles that you get in the FT in the form of whizzy graphics with a bit of text here and there.
The second report
This being reference 3.
Lots of projections dressed up in fancy clothes – but do they amount to much more than a pitch for more government money?
That said, there are a lot more cars about than van, lorries and other large vehicles and the projections suggest that penetration of this technology will be higher in that sector. No doubt the much larger numbers generate a bigger return on investment. And absence of driver is a big saving in the case of a taxi – and also the loss of a job – a loss which it seems unlikely to me will be made up for by a job in the supporting IT industry.
CAV (Connected and Autonomous Vehicle) technology adds a lot of costs, both to the vehicles themselves and the supporting infrastructure. These costs will come down with time and volumes, but they still have to be recouped, and taking out the drivers of taxis is clearly a good place to start. Drivers of delivery vans are not so easy: someone has to actually complete the delivery. Will suppliers really want entry-level staff of buyers poking around in the back of their vans? Residents of sink estates ditto?
And, swerving a bit, do we really want all these extra cars? I thought we were supposed to be going green, spending less of our time and energy rushing about in motor cars, even electrical ones.
The standard
Reference 10 is a standards document, presumably mainly written by automobile engineers, from which I learn of a more or less continuous spectrum running from no driver assistance to full autonomy, neatly broken down into five levels. But one can also learn quite a lot about the relevant driving problems and assistive technology.
From which I associate to the problem of falling asleep at the wheel, the risk of which might be supposed to increase the less there is for the driver to do. With ‘doing’ not including sensing: it might be appropriate for the driver to be very aware, for his senses to be active, but that does not seem to be the same from this point of view; of having something to do, engaging the hands and feet in activity. To my mind there is an awkward area where there is so much assistance that the driver does not have enough to do to stay awake – without the assistance having reached the point of full autonomy. It still needs the driver to be there and to be awake – and having to wake the driver up is not the same.
Our new Polo
Some of this assistive technology is already deployed in our entry-level Volkswagen Polo and automatic gear boxes have been around for a long time, although they have only become common, almost the norm, much more recently.
Radar assisted reversing has also been around for a while and has now trickled down to entry-level. Assistance which can be more irritating than helpful when we are reversing out of our drive. What would be more helpful would be detection of oncoming vehicles in the road as one reversed out, their presently being obscured by the side pillars – but maybe you need vehicle-to-vehicle communication to do that, what the present engineers call connection, as opposed to autonomy.
This technology can control the lights, the effect of which seems to be that lots of cars drive around in bright sunlight with their lights on, which can be irritating for drivers going the other way. It is reasonably good at reading the roadside speed signs. It can sense lane marking, and I suspect it of tampering with the steering on that account. It knows about tyre pressures – and no doubt Gemini could tell me how it does this, in the same way as he could tell me how railway carriage knew how many passengers there were. Some cars, perhaps not this one, attempt to detect the driver falling asleep, even nodding a bit.
Some unemployment background
On 18th February, the Guardian ran two pieces on unemployment in the UK, references 4 and 5. Headline figures being around 5% unemployment for the working population as a whole and around 15% for young people in the 15-24 band – and getting on for half of those at the top of this band have never had a job. Which some think means that they likely never will – which seems a bit hopeless.
I remember that when I was young, if you knew what you were about, you could always get a job of some sort in a day or so. And after that, as a graduate, I think I applied for three jobs, got interviewed for two and took one. While reference 2 reports a young lady who has made hundreds of applications, to which end she has no fewer than four model applications on her computer. Times have changed.
But then, if the number of graduates a year climbed from 50,000 in 1970 (roughly when I graduated) to 350,000 in 2011, perhaps it is unrealistic to expect the number of cushy white collar jobs – or at least suit jobs – to have risen in proportion. I believe they know all about this in places like China and India, both of which are churning out huge numbers of graduates, a lot of them from very good universities.
Perhaps the report detailed in the snap above, lifted from reference 8, will tell us all about it.
Hopefully it will work in the impact of an aging population with its increased demand for health and welfare services – which last have been very dependent on staff from overseas for a long time, starting with the Irish and the Portuguese.
Oddments
I tried to get an update on the number of graduates, but reference 7 was rather heavy going and the telephone number given was into call centre mode. I gave up.
I had to resort to Gemini to find out that ‘JISC’ used to stand for Joint Information Systems Committee, but they dropped that as part of a rebranding exercise. Their best known product is JANET, which stands for Joint Academic NETwork. Which is ‘keeping 20 million users in education and research reliably and securely connected’.
I am reminded that lots of people enjoy driving, they enjoy all that is involved in doing it well – in much the same way as a civil servant might enjoy honing his report or a gardener might enjoy doing a good job of planting and growing his row of cabbages - where good means rather more than getting a decent crop. Or a golfer pulling off a tricky shot. And one part of enjoying driving was enjoying getting the best out of the manual gearbox – and such people were very slow to take to automatics: the same people might be very slow to take to autonomies.
Getting further into bubbles, the sort of thing that psychiatrists, anthropologists, sociologists and New Age types might go in for, certain types of busy brain might well use such activity, such skilled manual tasks, to assert their autonomy, to assert the control of their brain over other matter. And certain types of busy brain might well such need such activity, not least to keep boredom and bad thoughts at bay. Bubbles maybe, but also important.
And some might argue that our societies are already paying the psychological price of the loss of so much skilled manual work. Perhaps involving the sort of carpentry plane noticed at reference 11. Concerning which, I now remember than planning a door down to the right size was called ‘shooting a door’. I don’t know where this phrase comes from – but maybe Gemini does.
A pretty good effort! And I remember watching an apprentice carpenter use an old penny for this very purpose, in a tower block in Abbey Road in north London. The one subsequently made famous by the Beatles.
Conclusions
An interesting business which is coming on at pace. But it remains far from clear to me that it all amounts to a good thing.
So can we trust our government to carry out appropriate due diligence before letting these things out on the streets – rather as they did with the infestation of hire cycles and power assisted cycles? Or are they in thrall to big business, dazzled by the froth (and the goodies) of the marketing men.
The same trap as some think they fell into with HS2? Or with our second aircraft carrier, the one without any aircraft?
PS: from where I associate to the Channel Tunnel which ran into trouble with its funding. Who ended up paying for it? Are they still paying, or can the tunnel now be said to be showing a profit? For some interested party or for UK and France, the countries with the most interest in the tunnel?
References
Reference 1: https://psmv6.blogspot.com/2026/02/to-cheese.html.
Reference 2: Connected & Automated Mobility 2025: Realising the benefits of self-driving vehicles in the UK - presented to Parliament by the Secretary of State for Transport and the Secretary of State for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy by Command of Her Majesty August 2022 – 2022. CP719. 142 pages.
Reference 3: Connected Places Catapult: Market Summary for Connected and Autonomous Vehicles – Element Energy, Cambridge Econometrics and Connected Places Catapult on behalf of the Centre for Connected and Autonomous Vehicles – undated but probably 2020. 82 pages.
Reference 4: Unemployment rate hits five-year high of 5.2% as wage growth cools – Tom Knowles, Guardian – 2026.
Reference 5: ‘It gets a litte bit soul crushing’: Young people face bleak outlook as youth unemployment rises – Tom Knowles, Nicola Slawson, Guardian – 2026.
Reference 6: https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/SN04252/SN04252.pdf. Education: Historical statistics – Paul Bolton, House of Commons Library – 2012.
Reference 7: https://www.hesa.ac.uk/. The Higher Education Statistics Agency, part of JISC below.
Reference 8: https://www.jisc.ac.uk/.
Reference 9: https://www.gov.uk/government/calls-for-evidence/young-people-and-work-report-call-for-evidence/young-people-and-work-report-call-for-evidence.
Reference 10: https://www.sae.org/standards/j3016_202104-taxonomy-definitions-terms-related-driving-automation-systems-road-motor-vehicles.
Reference 11: https://psmv6.blogspot.com/2026/02/the-challenge.html.